The Marjah Model

The Afghan offensive, despite attempts to safeguard civilians, is still an offensive in what we have proclaimed to be a war. In wars, lots of people get hurt, or worse. No matter how 'careful' or not an invader may try to be, he is still an invader. He is still causing local people to be killed, even if they're blown to bits by a mine their own people set.

Obama's Afghan war might end well, but only if Obama uses a temporary success (if there is one) to begin negotiating with the Taliban leadership. The Afghan government has already indicated that there is a way to do this (by calling a loya jirga to which the Taliban are invited). The Karzai government has promoted the idea of negotiations; NATO allies are receptive. There have been "feelers," and "signals" that even Mullah Omar is willing to talk. The Pakistanis have also offered to mediate with the Haqqani network, as long as they're assured of continued (renewed?) influence in Afghanistan. And now the Pakistanis and the CIA captured the "number two" leader, who favors negotiation.

There is only one important player who is still too skeptical to embrace negotiations: the Obama administration, or the American military.

This is shortsighted, especially in political terms. If Obama wants to re-elect Democrats, and gain re-election, tangible movement towards getting out of Afghanistan would be a tremendous boost. Obama should engage in the necessary diplomacy to assure an honorable withdrawal (ignoring the screams from the crazy Right).

At the same time, he and Congress should direct huge resources to stimulating job growth (again, ignoring the idiots shouting "Socialism!"). He should also bring the banks to heel. Obama and the Democrats in Congress must present voters with tangible progress on the economic and military fronts. Then Republicans wouldn't have a case--they offer no real alternative. Saying 'No' to everything does not solve, or even respond to what most people perceive as huge problems--joblessness, unstable, untamed banks, two wars, climate change and manufactured fear.

Marjah models what Obama needs to do domestically: impose as little pain as necessary, but not shrink from the probability that some will oppose whatever he does. Bipartisanship is dead: Republicans won't compromise when obstruction wins them votes. Obama and Democrats, especially Senators, should press on, using the Reconciliation process when necessary. Obama needs to use recess appointments, too, to neutralize Senatorial "holds."

Obama must be flexible, tough and unequivocal. What are the chances from a "centrist," who specialized in "bringing people together?"

Either, a progressive, activist government begins to solve our problems, or we'll be faced with stalemate--Obama will be replaced by a reactionary like Sarah Palin--and the Empire will self-destruct a la 476.