Revolution in Egypt

There aren't quite as many people in Tahrir (Liberation) Square as there are particles of snow falling from NY's sky, but the numbers are overwhelming. Al Jazeera estimated that there were at least two million people there on Tuesday (2/1/11), and many were determined to stay the night, insuring ownership of the square.

What is important for Egypt's apparent revolution is that the Army is not blocking it; in fact, it appears to be helping the protesters maintain order. There is an important reason for this, relevant to us: Egypt has a draft, so the army is filled not with professionals, or poverty recruits, as is ours, but with a cross-section of the young men of the nation. Given such a make-up, it would be risky and dangerous for the army to order its soldiers to shoot to kill their fellow Egyptians. The generals could face a general mutiny, an element that helped precipitate the Soviet revolution in Russia.

The question on everyone's mind, from Obama and Hillary to Joe Blow, is what does the likely overthrow of the US's ally of 30 years, President Mubarak, mean for American interests?

First of all, the worst thing the US could do, would be to support Mubarak and drive out the protesters. Second, what the US does short of a misguided intervention is less important; the Egyptian people have clearly made up their minds: Mubarak has to go. What comes next is still up in the air.

The Muslim Brotherhood has been repressed in Egypt since the 1950's, but it seems to be the most organized opposition force. However, the people interviewed in Liberation Square, and in Alexandria, appear to have a more secular bent, so no one knows who will prevail. Further, Mohammed El Baradei, probably an interim figure, is also secular, not an "Islamist."

In any case, Egypt will go in whatever direction it goes, whether through popular pressure or military decision. If the latter, it might be cautiously pro-western. However, if Egypt does have regime change (likely), then there could be a domino effect, and that could affect "our oil." After all, Egypt is the most populous Arab nation, and has been the center of learning in the Middle East for millennia, so the popular overthrow of a pro-western dictator there could have manifold consequences.

One conservative commentator is shrilly warning against $120 oil: even that is possible. It is almost guaranteed, however, that US sponsorship of conservative dictators in the region will no longer insure US regional control.

The Egyptian and Tunisian popular revolutions signal the beginning of the end of the US's current Mideast strategy and tactics. Either, the US adapts to the new facts on the ground, or the popular outpouring will cause a significant weakening of the US Empire. It is one more movement towards a multi-polar world.