Our Debt Trap

The "new" economy: workers have no rights, and are paid a few dollars over minimum wage. They have to pay for an American lifestyle: a decent rental, at very least, a car, insurance and gas, cable and phone, electricity, medical care and food, going up almost as fast as gas.

I have friends who are barely making it, working full time; they're good at what they do, highly valued by their employers, yet they're paid too little to afford the minimal American lifestyle.

Prices go up, although Bernanke tells us we don't have meaningful inflation, that deflation is the danger. Deflation is a danger, not just in the housing market, where prices are marching downward, but in the labor market. Workers are paid less and less, because everything, including rent, goes up--except their wages. The result is that people have less and less money to spend; they economize. In the country, people only drive to the store when they have multiple tasks; gas costs too much for multiple shopping trips, so there is less money as demand for goods and services.

Meanwhile, corporations are sitting on piles of cash, much of it from foreign earnings, and from squeezing more work out of fewer workers. The rise in unemployment (from 8.8% to 9.1%) is driven by labor deflation, i.e. people don't have enough money to maintain the demand necessary for businesses (small and large) to hire more workers.

No tax cuts for corporations and wealthy investors will stimulate job creation when there is flagging demand for the goods and services those businesses sell. No lay offs of public employees (Federal, state and local) is going to create more jobs; the opposite is true; layoffs drive demand downward.

Two policies would create jobs: resolving the housing collapse by allowing people to stay in their homes and renegotiating mortgages based on their homes' current value, and/or subsidizing housing payments. And, government creating needed jobs directly. Our crumbling infrastructure alone indicates that WPA-type jobs would be positive investments in the nation's future. It doesn't matter where the money comes from, but only the Federal government can make a political decision to invest in jobs.

Instead, governments slash jobs and spending, suddenly reducing money available for goods and services. The result is a debt trap. Fewer jobs mean less money being spent. This results in lower tax revenue and higher expenditures on services to the unemployed, which then forces cuts of even more jobs. This self-reinforcing deflation, is a debt trap. Deficits will rise as expenditures are cut; debt will increase as unemployment rises and as people spend less. That's not a paradox, it's how things work.

Rome was caught in a debt trap in the 4th century--and never got out of it. Keynes and FDR found a way out in the 1930's. Why don't we?

Tax Cuts For the Wealthy

That seems to be the refrain of conservatives, Republicans and Tea Party activists: they advocate making the Bush tax cuts permanent. Yet, at the same time, they rail about the admittedly huge government debt. Making the tax cuts permanent, would, it's estimated, increase government debt in the next ten years by well over $2 trillion. And Boehner, the House Republican leader, actually said the tax cuts don't have to be paid for!

Republicans are attempting to gain political traction with the "all debt is bad" crowd, while also currying favor with wealthy fundraisers, and indulging in the you-can-get-it-for-nothing thinking that created the disastrous 2007-8 collapse.

Cutting taxes has stimulated the economy, and increased revenue in some limited situations. It worked with JFK's tax-cuts, because tax rates were very high then (they are very low now), and their reduction made money available for consumption and therefore created incentives for investment (from the added spending boosting demand). They didn't work so well from Reagan through Bush II, because wages did not keep pace, increased consumption was based on adding to private debt; foregone taxes benefited the wealthy, who saw "investment" opportunities in financial speculation, or foreign production. So, the famous Bush tax cuts doubled the US debt, and led to speculative excess that caused the collapse.

Obama's stimulus spending has almost doubled the debt again, but without the stimulus we'd be calling this a Great Depression, not a Great Recession. Maintaining tax-cuts for the wealthy would create greater deficits, but would not stimulate the economy. Why? Banks and individuals are sitting on hoards of cash already, rather than investing, because there is little demand for new production: investment in the face of low or shrinking demand is usually considered foolhardy.

Conservatives have an ideological rationale for high-end tax-cuts: encouraging investment and cutting down the size of government. The former works in limited instances, but won't work now. As for the latter, when in power conservatives have increased government size, while still cutting taxes--hence creating structural deficits, i.e. deficits in good times.

A deficit in bad times is a natural outgrowth of need--people need support and can't pay taxes when unemployed--and partially counters the decline in demand: it is an investment for better times. A deficit during a boom is like living high on your credit card.

Tax cuts to the wealthy, now, would inflate speculation, but would not increase consumption enough to stimulate growth. They would balloon the deficit even further. They might also, finally, drive the world away from the dollar as world reserve currency: Americans would have demonstrated their financial recklessness once again. (The US caused the global downturn by encouraging out of control speculation).

Flight from the Dollar could end the American Empire as we know it.